Analysis some key problem about the chosen of upper limit order and order-determining rule . Then predict the TEC by using linearity least variance prediction method and correcting prediction method .

对建立模型过程中阶数 上限的确定及定阶 准则的选取等关键问题进行了分析，分别采用线性最小方差预测法和修正预测法进行了预报。